If you’ve been looking at the headlines lately, you might think America is ditching green energy to stage a massive coal comeback. As someone tracking this closely, I can tell you that’s a major oversimplification of the actual data. The energy sector has been my life for the last 37 years, and I’d like to make an argument for the critical points that are missing within this overarching conversation.
Before we get into those, let’s all agree that the bottom line here is the U.S. needs power and a lot of it, more than anyone could ever have anticipated needing.
Over the past few months, I've watched media coverage of the Department of Energy's $625 million coal funding package. Several headlines suggest America is abandoning renewables and bringing back coal-fired generation.
You’d be forgiven for thinking the U.S. is pivoting back to a coal boom while green energy hits a wall. However, I’ve been reading these reports carefully, and I can tell you that this narrative isn’t accurate in the slightest.
Because my life revolves around this industry, I feel an obligation to add the context that’s been missing. Here’s what matters: manufacturers, industrial operators, and really anyone who depends on dependable power—which is all of us—deserve a clear, accurate read on what’s actually happening on America’s power grid.
We're Starved for Electricity
Right now, we're mostly maintaining existing coal infrastructure because we have to keep the lights on. Over the past two or three years, we've had coal plants that were planning to retire. Now those same plants are saying, “We can't retire. We need the electricity.” As a result, retirement timelines are being extended by a few years out of sheer necessity.
Basin Electric Cooperative is the only plant considering the establishment of a new unit. It’s currently conducting a study to potentially add another unit at its Dry Fork station in Wyoming. Although they will be receiving federal funds, even this potential unit isn’t guaranteed to happen.
Don’t confuse these factors at play with a comeback. We aren't building many—if any—more coal plants, and I’m willing to bet that the last one we’ll ever see in this country is already finished.
What $625 Million Actually Means
Now, about that $625 million from the Department of Energy. That sounds like a fortune, doesn't it? But when you dedicate that amount toward the coal sector, it's pennies on the dollar. It's simply not enough money to "bring back" coal.
What is that funding actually for? Refurbishing some existing plants and maybe restarting some units that have been retired. That's it. This is maintenance funding, not a coal comeback. It's not going to go very far, and it's certainly not building new generation capacity.
The Renewable Energy Reality
Here's another misconception I've seen repeatedly: that recent policy changes mean the death of renewable energy development in America. That's not accurate either.
Yes, we've seen some scale-back on the renewable energy side. The tax credit structure changed, creating very tight deadlines. Some projects can't meet those new restrictions. But that doesn't mean renewable energy is dead or dying.
Here's my honest opinion, and I've heard many people in this industry agree with me: we're going to build renewable energy with or without the tax credit.
The President could come in tomorrow and say we're not adding one more penny to tax credits for renewable energy, and it would still get built. Why? Because the U.S. needs the electricity.
Now, would that change things? Absolutely. We have not operated one day on unsubsidized renewable energy in this country. So power bills would go up substantially without those subsidies. But the projects would still move forward, because the demand for electricity is that urgent.
Getting China Wrong
One of my biggest concerns with recent coverage has been the characterization of China's energy policy. You might see headlines claiming China has abandoned coal to become a mega green energy pioneer while America doubles down on traditional energy.
It’s not quite that black and white, but I genuinely applaud the progress China is making in the renewable sector. They've been building out solar, wind, and hydro like crazy.
But something else is also happening; China is aggressively building coal, too. They haven't stopped coal production. They're ramping it up while simultaneously investing in renewables. They're doing both because they need massive amounts of electricity, just like we do.
When I read some of these articles, if I were someone who knew nothing about the power industry, I'd come away thinking the United States has shut down all efforts to build renewable energy, and we're bringing back those non-eco-friendly coal plants. At the same time, I'd think China has become the clean energy leader and has stopped building coal entirely.
That's not reality. China is still a massive CO2 emitter because of its coal production, and it's growing that production. It just so happens that they’re building renewables at the same time.
The All of the Above Reality
The truth is, the U.S. is going to see a lot of natural gas fired generation built out. That's probably the path forward for new baseload capacity. We're going to continue building renewable energy because we need the power. And we're going to maintain existing coal plants longer than we planned because we can't afford the gap.
Energy security comes down to two things: physics and economics. Our priority is to keep the lights on and support our manufacturers, which requires a pragmatic mix of renewables, gas, and maintained coal units. That $625 million isn't a pivot back to fossil fuels. It’s the price of keeping a complex grid stable during a period of massive growth.
It's not a signal that we're abandoning clean energy goals. It's a practical acknowledgment that you can't retire generation capacity before you have alternatives ready to replace it.
Manufacturers need reliable electricity. Industrial operations need affordable power. And all of us need clear, accurate information about energy policy to make informed decisions, whether those are business decisions, investment decisions, or just understanding what's happening with our power grid.
Mischaracterizing a $625 million maintenance funding package as a coal comeback could be quite detrimental. Suggesting America has abandoned renewable energy when we haven't does not serve the conversation. And portraying China as having stopped coal production when they're actively expanding it creates a false narrative that could actually influence business decisions about where to locate manufacturing operations.
The reality is, we're maintaining coal that we'd rather retire because we need the power right now. We're building renewables despite policy changes because we need the power tomorrow. And we're going to build a lot of natural gas generation because that's what's actually feasible for new baseload capacity in the near term.
Don't mistake this for a coal comeback. It is a pragmatic effort to keep the lights on during a complex transition.
As Senior Vice President of Research Power Industry at Industrial Info Resources, Britt Burt monitors the shifting landscape of energy infrastructure and the policies shaping today's power generation.
