The trend against vocational training began in the early 1960s, when the federal government began to push college education over vocational and technical training. Schools began to close down shop classes and convert them to computer classes to support the "college first” agenda.
Parents also bought into the college degree as the highest priority for their children—and suddenly, working with your hands became "uncool.” The priority is still college first, and the federal government spends far more on college prep than it does on vocational training. As a result, several generations have missed out on the opportunity to gain the skills to get a good-paying job without a college degree (or the loans that go with it).
Is college still the answer?
According to U.S. Census Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Center for Education Statistics data from 1980 to 2019, college costs have increased by 169% over the past four decades, while earnings for workers aged 22 to 27 years old have increased by just 19%. Today, typical college costs, including tuition and fees, room and board, allowances for books and supplies, transportation and other personal expenses, range from $27,330 for public in-state university students to $55,800 for private nonprofit college students.
The following chart shows that middle-class income has been declining since 1967. Many families are struggling financially and are not in a position to send their kids to college.
In 1980, annual tuition and fees at public and private four-year colleges were 4% and 17% of median family income. Today, they are 9% and 38%, shutting many families out of their kids attending college.
Student debt has risen dramatically
Student debt has risen from $40 billion in 1980 to more than $1.8 trillion in 2025. Young people are aware of stories about college graduates struggling to pay off their student debt, high interest rates and fees and loan defaults. A decreasing percentage of undergraduates are taking out federal loans compared to a decade ago. The proportion of first-time college students borrowing federal loans dropped from about 50% in 2011–2012 to 39% in 2021–2022, and new restrictions on student loans aren’t helping.
In January 2026, the Trump administration announced new restrictions on student loans. Beginning in July 2026, the federal government will curb access to billions of dollars in student loans and reconfigure how borrowers repay their debts. This is going to make it even harder for many middle-class kids to go to college.
Inadequate job preparation
A new survey sponsored by Hult International Business School reveals that traditional undergraduate education programs are not adequately preparing students for the workplace, to the detriment of both employees and companies. Key findings of the new survey conclude that most recent graduates say their traditional undergraduate education let them down:
- 77% say they learned more in six months at their job than in their entire four-year education.
- 55% say their college education didn’t prepare them at all for their job.
Increasing numbers of recent college graduates are ending up in relatively low-skilled jobs that, historically, have gone to those with lower levels of education.
A briefing paper by the Hudson Institute summarizes the college dilemma as, "During the last 50 years, American higher education has steadily grown in scale, wealth and stature. Despite its current status as the world's education superpower, however, it has begun to encounter public disapproval and consumer resistance. Colleges and universities have been able to ignore productivity concerns because a college education paid off so well in the job market, but that payoff appears to be decreasing while the costs continue to rise much more quickly than inflation. Government funding is decreasing, there are fewer students available to fill the seats, and consumers are becoming more cost-conscious.
"Higher education must develop a greater concern for productivity and a willingness to serve consumers. Costs must be cut, including those for personnel. There should be more emphasis placed on academic subjects with more core subjects and requirements. The faculty research imperative should be ended and all non-essential amenities cut.”
What about the trades?
Perhaps trying to make all high school kids go through college prep in high school wasn’t a practical idea, and it is time to evaluate other alternatives. Disillusionment with the high cost of a college education has incentivized a growing number of high school graduates to evaluate opportunities in the skilled trades.
There is a big opportunity today for high school graduates in manufacturing because an April 2024 joint report by Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute (MI) projects the U.S. manufacturing industry will need 3.8 million new workers by 2033. A significant portion, as many as 1.9 million, could go unfilled due to the growing skills gap. In fact, the BLS JOLTS survey shows that there were 438,000 manufacturing job openings in July 2025.
Trump’s America First Program is designed to force the reshoring of foreign production. If tariffs force American corporations to reshore much of the production they have outsourced over the last four decades, the 1.9 million unfilled jobs projected by Deloitte will become a reality, and millions of new workers will need to be trained.
As manufacturing has become more automated over the last 40 years, it is fast becoming a digital environment. What is needed now are very highly skilled technicians who can operate, repair, maintain and troubleshoot all of this high-tech equipment. Young people who already have digital skills may be the best recruits for manufacturing's evolving digital environment.
The need for maintenance technicians is becoming critical as well. If reshoring becomes a reality, I think it is certain that manufacturers will invest more in automating production lines, including robots, palletizers and a wide range of packaging machines. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projection for the 2023-2033 decade indicates about 606,200 annual openings across all installation, maintenance and repair occupations.
The case for apprentice training (earn while you learn)
Most apprenticeship training is paid for by the employer, including a wage. The income starts immediately rather than after five years of college. It helps students land a job faster and costs significantly less than a traditional four-year college. High-skilled workers and craftsmen are needed in the foundry, tool and die, mold making, semiconductor, machine tool, advanced machining and forging industries. All of these industries offer apprentice training that leads to a journeyman status. A formal apprenticeship certification and, often, a two-year associate's degree provide long-term, marketable skills and professional development for people who want a career.
I think offering new workers internships and advanced apprenticeship training that lead to journeyman status is the best tool companies can use to attract new recruits. Starting wages for graduates of four-year machining or tool-and-die apprenticeship programs typically range from $55,000 to $65,000 annually, or $26 to $31 per hour, and according to the Federation for Advanced Manufacturing Education, $98,000 per year after five years. However, journeymen machinists in industries such as transportation and chemical manufacturing can make more than $100,000 per year.
Changing the recruitment message
To recruit the necessary people, manufacturing really needs to describe the opportunity as a career, not just another job. To do this, companies will have to address job security, apprentice training, pay for skills attained, certification and long-term employment. Still, manufacturing has an image problem.
American corporations outsourced 5 million jobs and closed 90,000 plants since 1997. Young people are aware of this and do not view manufacturing as a stable, long-term opportunity. To change the view of manufacturing as an unstable industry, corporations must publicly address the following problems:
- Job Security: American corporations must make a public statement on both job security and outsourcing. Young people have many other options in the service industries and will want assurance that the plant will not be closed and their jobs outsourced in the future.
- Wages: The recruits will be interested in a career that defines starting wages, progressively increasing wages as skills are attained and a path to journeyman status. The average entry-level wage in the U.S. manufacturing sector can vary, but it typically ranges from approximately $17 to $19 per hour, with some positions paying lower and others, particularly those requiring more specialized skills, potentially exceeding $20 per hour.
- Entry-Level Workers: The industry has an urgent need for entry-level workers, but recruiting is a big problem. Manufacturing must compete with employers like Amazon and UPS that offer higher entry wages and bonuses. Entry-level workers can get $22 per hour at Amazon and UPS with a short training period. The industry will also have to match these starting wages to get its fair share of entry workers.
The average starting wage for a four-year college graduate was $65,677 per year, for all degrees in 2024, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE). The starting wage of a graduate of a machining apprentice program is $65,000.
Michael Collins is the author of a new book, "The Globalization Trap," which will debut in 2026. He can be reached at [email protected] or on mpcmgt.net.
